Ignoring Crime Statistics

Advice for homebuyers in Toronto: Ignore crime data. Perhaps that is an overly simplistic statement, but, in fact, statistics do not necessarily reflect the true situation in a province, region, city or neighbourhood.
Take for example, Statistics Canada data on rates of violent crime. Nunavit, Yukon, and NWT have the highest per capita crime rates in the country. However, with almost half of Canada’s land mass, and only a handful of residents, one or two violent crimes spikes the data severely. The North seems like an incredibly dangerous place in which to live! On a per-square-kilometer, basis, on the other hand, the region seems like the safest place on earth.
Winnipeg infamously calls itself the “Murder Capital of Canada.” On a per-capita basis, this claim is true. But, almost without exception, the fifty or so killings that happen in Manitoba annually are gang-on-gang, or friend-on-friend issues, placing the general public in very little danger.
PEI went from “0” murders in 2004 to “2” in 2008. That meant that their homicide rate was non-existent in 2004, compared to the Canadian average of 1.95 and Ontario’s of 1.51 per 100,000 people. Turn to 2008, and that rate skyrocketed to 1.43 for PEI, compared to 1.83 for Canada and 1.36 for Ontario. So had PEI suddenly become a “Murder Capital?” Two homicides hardly qualifies it for such a label.
Toronto’s various neighbourhoods experience different rates and types of crime. But relying purely on statistics that show a community to be either safe or violent is a false premise. First, news outlets focus on violent crimes in their daily reports. More densely populated regions generally experience more crime. Even in neighbourhoods, small pockets and micro-regions may have very high numbers while the area may be predominantly safe.
The most effective way to gauge the “safety” of a community is to speak to neighbouring homeowners. The very appearance of a community, and how well it is maintained can give clues to its track record. And, as many communities are upgraded, crime stats drop. In fact, almost all statistics are severely dated by the time they are reported, anyway.
Crime data is a significant consideration in any home purchase decision. But it is critical to take those statistics, and apply them, in a common sense analysis, to your own concerns and preferences.